Local Political Expert – Elections Forecasting, Political Risk

This is a fully remote position, open to applicants in United States, +2 more locations.

📋 Description

• Prepare point-in-time political analyses and predictions based on a specified evidence cutoff.

• Make and document directional assessments regarding polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.

• Clarify the causal mechanisms that underlie the anticipated political and market effects of events.

• Evaluate model-generated analyses and assess them against independent expert standards.

• Provide expert-authored forecasting and research data utilized to assess and enhance AI models.

• Complete projects in alignment with evolving business needs and performance standards.

⛳️ Requirements

• Practical experience with specific races in U.S. swing states, including current or upcoming Senate, gubernatorial, or statewide contests, or recent cycles in the same state.

• On-the-ground understanding of the electorate, candidates, and the local political landscape.

• Background as a university political scientist, state or regional pollster, analytics staff member for state-level campaigns or parties, or a state political-risk analyst.

• Proven track record of making live judgments regarding polling, win probabilities, or odds in pertinent races; retrospective commentary is not sufficient.

• Strong proficiency in polling literacy and causal event analysis.

• Typically, a minimum of 8 years of direct experience or compelling evidence demonstrating equivalent performance.

• Applicants should have participated in a current or recent U.S. race in the state they will cover.

• Ability to reason in real-time without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.

• Must be capable of working as an independent contractor.

• H1-B and STEM OPT candidates are not eligible for support.

• Ability to cover Iowa; candidates must be located in Canada or the USA.

🏝️ Benefits

• Fully remote position.

• Flexible work schedule; tasks can be completed at your convenience.

• Weekly payments via Stripe or Wise based on services rendered.

• Projects may be extended, shortened, or concluded early based on requirements and performance.

• Competitive compensation.

• Collaborate with leading researchers.

• Engage in projects that train and enhance AI systems.

• Reasonable accommodations available upon request.

• Up to $1,000 referral payment for each successful referral, subject to referral limits.