This is a fully remote position, open to applicants in United States, +2 more locations.

📋 Description

• Create timely political reports and forecasts based on a defined evidence cutoff date.

• Make and document directional assessments regarding polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds.

• Clarify the causal mechanisms behind the anticipated political and market impacts of events.

• Evaluate model-generated analyses and assess them against a personal standard of expertise.

• Generate expert-authored forecasting and research data to assess and enhance AI models pertaining to political and financial analysis.

⛳️ Requirements

• Practical experience with specific races in Iowa, including current or forthcoming Senate, governor, or statewide elections, or recent cycles in the same state.

• In-depth understanding of the electorate, candidates, and the local political landscape.

• Background as a university political scientist, regional or state pollster, state-level campaign or party analytics staff member, or state political-risk analyst.

• Proven track record of making real-time judgments regarding polling, win probabilities, or odds in relevant races, rather than retrospective analysis.

• Strong proficiency in polling literacy and causal event analysis.

• Typically requires 8+ years of direct experience, or exceptionally strong evidence of equivalent proficiency.

• Familiarity with current or recent U.S. races in the state being covered.

• Ability to make judgments based on a stated evidence cutoff without relying on hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.

• Must not be an H1-B or STEM OPT candidate.