Lead Forecaster – Self Sufficiency, Aging, and People with Disabilities

This is a fully remote position, open to applicants in Oregon.

📋 Description

• Create statewide caseload forecasts for primary programs managed by the Department of Human Services.

• Design and adjust intricate statistical models that incorporate economic and demographic factors affecting participation in means-tested programs.

• Articulate forecasting methodologies and policy matters to executive leadership, program leaders, budget personnel, financial offices, legislative staff, legislators, media representatives, and the public.

• Analyze and validate complex datasets.

• Assess data quality and reliability while identifying trends and anomalies.

• Examine the impact of legislation, policy alterations, program structure, economic conditions, demographic changes, and other external factors on caseloads and service demand.

• Utilize independent analytical judgment to develop evidence-based solutions.

• Engage and collaborate with staff from ODHS and OHA, executives, budget and policy personnel, legislative and Governor's Office staff, as well as other stakeholders.

• Deliver complex or sensitive forecasting, policy, and fiscal information to both technical and non-technical audiences.

• Adhere to established forecasting and reporting timelines.

⛳️ Requirements

• A Master's degree in economics or a related discipline, including applied social or biological sciences, accompanied by four years of experience in predictive analytics, forecasting, and related social science research; OR a Ph.D. in economics or a related field, including applied social or biological sciences, with one year of experience in predictive analytics, forecasting, and related social science research.

• Proven experience in developing, validating, and refining complex forecasts, projections, statistical models, or other quantitative methodologies.

• Experience in analyzing complex datasets, assessing data quality and reliability, identifying trends and anomalies, and supporting accurate and defensible conclusions.

• Familiarity with analyzing legislation, policy changes, program design, economic conditions, demographic shifts, and other factors that affect caseloads, program participation, or service demand.

• Capacity to convey complex data, statistical methodologies, forecasts, and projections to non-technical audiences.

• Independent professional judgment and strong problem-solving capabilities.

• Experience with data analytics, particularly relational databases and/or administrative data.

• Submission of a cover letter and resume is required.

• A detailed work and education history is necessary.

• Ability to work autonomously with minimal supervision, manage competing priorities, and meet forecasting and reporting deadlines.

• Capability to undergo a criminal history and background check.

• Authorization to work in the United States; ODHS does not provide visa sponsorship.

• Occasional evening and weekend work may be necessary.

🏝️ Benefits

• Cost of Living Adjustments.

• Annual salary increases until the top of the listed salary range is reached.

• Comprehensive benefits package.

• Potential eligibility for the Public Service Loan Forgiveness Program.

• Employee Resource Group communities at ODHS that encourage shared learning.

• Preference for veterans and Oregon National Guard candidates.

• 5 percent preference points for eligible applicants residing primarily in Malheur County.